Q1 2025 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

May 8, 2025

It’s been a bumpy ride for the U.S. economy over the past few months, with consumer confidence at a 12-year low. Many economists are predicting an economic downturn—and senior banking executives agree, according to IntraFi’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2025.

When asked if the U.S. economy is in trouble, 73% of survey respondents said the U.S. economy is in recession already or will be within the next 12 months. Nearly four in 10 (39%) believe a recession will occur within the next 6 to 12 months, while another 24% anticipate it within the next 6 months. Interestingly, no bankers in the northeast region of the U.S. believe the economy is already in recession, but 67% believe it will be in the next year.

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