Q4 2020 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

October 1, 2020

Despite some improvements in outlook, bank leaders continue to be wary about the prospects for an economic recovery in 2021. Two-thirds stated the economy will not fully recover until at least 2022 or later - with 43% saying recovery will happen in 2022 and 23% indicating it will come after 2022.

These results were echoed by the survey's quarterly question on overall economic conditions. More than half (55%) of respondents reported overall economic conditions for their bank had worsened from 12 months prior, although this was a 10-point improvement from the 3rd quarter. Twenty-four percent indicated that economic conditions had improved over the prior 12 months, while 21% believed conditions remained the same.

Looking to the future, the percentage of respondents that expected overall economic conditions to improve in the 12 months ahead rose 12 points to 38%. Nearly three in 10 anticipated conditions to be worse for the 12 months ahead, while 33% predicted conditions would remain steady.

The recent rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has been heralded by some as the first step to ending the pandemic. We asked bank leaders their thoughts on vaccinations for employees. More than nine in 10 (92%) said their bank will not require employees to get a COVID-19 vaccination before returning to the office...

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