Q2 2022 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

Top bank executives overwhelmingly believe recession is inevitable. More than half say an overcorrection by the Federal Reserve is to blame.

While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says a recession is not inevitable, bank executives who participated in IntraFi's Q2 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey would beg to differ.

Not only did 96% of bank respondents state a recession will start either this year or next, another 51% would assign blame for that recession to the Fed - because of a mismanagement of monetary policy.

Indeed, confidence in how the Federal Reserve is managing inflation and the U.S. economy is on the decline. Sixty-two percent of bankers who participated in our survey are concerned the Fed will overcorrect for inflation, a 10-point increase from last quarter. Another 18% worry they will not raise rates fast and high enough to rein in inflation. That leaves less than a quarter of bankers (21%) who believe the Fed is on the right track.

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